When do you think things will go back to the way they were, I mean the tech recession, wage wise, considering the current economic situation?
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Keeping the economy aside, I believe there has been a boom in the field of product management in recent years. It was heavily advertised, and I believe many people who entered it are underqualified or performing their jobs poorly. Additionally, it appears that there is no clear agreement on how PM should be organized inside the companies or what specifically each job is responsible for.
Now, we observe certain companies changing the roles of PMs or pushing more of these duties to Engineering. That, in my opinion, will continue for a while and reduce work chances before failing and making a comeback. The demands, however, will then be considerably more stringent, seeking for skilled PMs rather than just those with a PO training or certification.
These are merely my highly subjective thoughts.
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I completely consort, with the exception that I believe there will be more specialized PMs in the future (like growth PMs), who have a defined position and function. I think specialized PMs will become more important in the future because businesses will increasingly require expertise in niche areas. Having a specialized PM who can understand and cater to specific industry needs will greatly contribute to a company’s success. Additionally, with the increasing complexity of projects and the need for effective coordination and communication, skilled product managers will play a crucial role in ensuring successful project delivery. They will be responsible for overseeing the entire product lifecycle and aligning cross-functional teams to achieve strategic goals.
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The trend will eventually come to a stop when some executive says, “We thought we could let engineers do what they want to?” Engineers can write code, but I’ve met very few engineers who can successfully navigate politics and other aspects of business, which is why their involvement in certain projects is limited. However, engineers who possess strong communication and interpersonal skills can greatly contribute to projects that require navigating politics and other aspects of business. These engineers are highly sought after by companies because they can effectively bridge the gap between technical expertise and business acumen. They play a crucial role in ensuring that technical solutions align with the overall business strategy.
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True. Specialized PM’s responsibilities include coordinating with stakeholders, setting clear objectives, and managing resources efficiently. They will also be responsible for monitoring and evaluating performance metrics to ensure continuous improvement. Additionally, they will need to adapt and adjust strategies as needed to maintain alignment with changing circumstances and priorities. They will also play a crucial role in providing guidance and support to team members, fostering a collaborative and high-performing work environment. Additionally, they will be responsible for evaluating performance and providing constructive feedback to ensure ongoing growth and development.
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Such a trend won’t, in my opinion, ever come to an end.
Tech corporations are currently operating in “wartime” in the present day. One of the wonderful trade-offs is that politics tend to take a backseat in situations like this, making the abilities required to negotiate it less crucial. People whose occupations largely include “stakeholder management” may find themselves in a scenario where there isn’t as much management required of the stakeholders. In that way, a lot of contemporary PM is rather ZIRPy, though that is changing.
However, even if you still require a lot of PMs, you don’t require as many as you formerly did.
The solution is for PMs to put in the effort and learn some additional skills that are valued in the workplace. technical expertise, market knowledge, sales knowledge, etc.
I found a related article which I think is a very good read. Please go through it one:
“Wartime” vs “Peacetime” at Tech Companies (pragmaticengineer.com)
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I’m interested to see how this will impact the myth that hard skills are not required. Will it prove that soft skills are more important in the job market than previously thought, or will it challenge the prevailing belief? It remains to be seen. The outcome of this situation will ultimately determine the fate of this long-standing debate.
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Who said that? And what does “hard skills” in this context mean?
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I kind of understand what the OP is expressing, even though it wasn’t expressed by them. I am attempting to get into this field (currently focused on growth), but three to four years ago, when I was in my freshman or sophomore year, I had a number of informational interviews with executives at prestigious organizations. To analyze data and eventually land an APM post, they all indicated you didn’t need software or even rigorous data analysis skills (think python, statistics, etc.). Instead, you needed soft skills, intermediate Excel abilities, or good judgment. Many of them went that way or just happened to stumble into the field. Now, at least in my industry, it appears that APM requires years of experience. Many people I have recently come across have wanted you to be a software engineer for years before asking you to take 60k, which to me seems like it would be unaffordable for many engineers making 90k+.
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Interest rates are the key factor.
By including the further future in your TAM due to low interest rates, the size of the addressable market is effectively increased. That was killed by high interest rates. In the foreseeable future, you must generate income.
Therefore, I don’t anticipate things to get much better until interest rates start to decrease again until firms start having significantly greater near-term profit projections.
I cannot offer an estimate as to when that will be, but I will say that the real economy appears to be doing very well right now, so we shouldn’t anticipate any natural regression to the mean or similar phenomena. To lower rates quickly, an exogenous shock will be necessary, and these shocks typically aren’t favorable for employing tech professionals.
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Due to the excess CVD money that entered the stock market, tech heavily overhired. The layoffs were a step in the right direction toward things getting back to normal. Since the President now has the ability to borrow money indefinitely, he will stimulate the economy in an effort to delay a severe recession until after the election. If you can find work in the coming year, grab it and stick with it for two to three years. I fear 2025 might be difficult.
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@DonovanOkang, What expenses can the president unilaterally approve? Unlimited borrowing is equivalent to giving them a limitless credit line while giving their hated neighbor the power to decide what they purchase.
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The debt ceiling was recently suspended by Congress until January 2025, which is after the following presidential election. As a result, the President has been given temporary, unilateral authority to incur fresh debt by the Executive branch. In the year or two prior to a reelection, no president in office wants the economy to be in decline. He’ll probably employ that tool, then. But that was only a non-internal aspect that affected how I responded to the job question. A hiring bubble was caused by a monetary bubble that inflated stock prices and cash flow. The debt ceiling agreement might postpone the impending slump in the economy, in my opinion. Therefore, if you can find work in the next year or two, I would recommend sticking with it.
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Right, I’m tearing a hole in the main postponement delay mechanism. I’m genuinely curious in what kind of spending a POTUS can approve without consent from Congress.
The prolongation is intended to pay for previous commitments, not brand-new ones.
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The recession will end when the Fed begins to lower interest rates.
It will take some time because, if we’re being completely honest, there is still a lot of fat to remove and inflation appears to be here to stay.
A recession-free deflation appears improbable. Many people will eventually be caught off guard as a result of the increasing credit/loan rates.
And the tech industry won’t be stable until all of that takes place.
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I just answered a similar question in another forum, so I’ll keep things short and sweet: Imagine COVID never happened. - Think about a world without the Russia-Ukraine War. Would conditions be better than they are now. In order to combat inflation, interest rates, insecurity, tension, and other issues that were brought on by those two catastrophes, we currently need to reset. Take note of 2008. We believed that the era of easy credit was ending. Yes, the cycle will continue. By the first or second quarter of 2025, things should return to normal. This cannot continue forever. Just that conflict ending will undo so many things at once. Then, Ukraine will have money to reconstruct itself.
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What is a recession, exactly? From their lows, several of the big equities are now rising. It’s difficult to say if we’re talking about recruiting because many businesses were already bloated. It will be difficult for the start-up industry until financing rates are lower so as not to impede someone’s capacity to have enough runway to effectively build a concept.
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Economic trends, including those in the tech industry, are influenced by a complex interplay of factors such as technological advancements, market demand, government policies, global events, and more.
The duration of a tech recession and the recovery of wages can vary widely depending on these factors. It’s important to note that historical patterns might not necessarily repeat themselves, especially as the technology landscape continues to evolve rapidly.
Economic bubbles, including those in the tech industry, are historically recurring phenomena. These bubbles are often characterized by rapid increases in asset prices followed by a sharp decline. Predicting when the next tech bubble might occur is difficult, as it depends on a variety of complex factors such as market sentiment, investor behavior, technological developments, regulatory changes, and more.
It’s important for individuals to make informed decisions based on their own financial goals and risk tolerance rather than trying to time or predict market bubbles. Diversification, risk management, and a long-term perspective are generally sound strategies for navigating the ups and downs of financial markets. If you’re seeking financial advice or insights into market trends, consider consulting with a qualified financial advisor or doing thorough research from reputable sources.
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I hope you are doing well. I was just contemplating about the current economic climate and the tech recession, specifically in relation to wages. I’m sure you’ve also been reflecting on this. When do you think things might return to the state they were before, considering the present circumstances? 
Looking forward to your insights! 
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No one really knows. The economy is too complex for any one person to make the call. If you have to make a guess, look at published data on consumer consumption to get a sense of the economy’s health. This is a US-centric view but is very likely relevant in a lot of places.
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